Orton an upgrade over Henne?

The latest reports have Miami in serious negotiations with Denver for quarterback Kyle Orton.

While he doesn’t have the flair or splash of a Vince Young, most NFL pundits believe Orton is a clear upgrade over incumbent Chad Henne. Let’s see what story last year’s numbers tell, broken down bullet by bullet.

• Henne: 75.4 QB RAT, 3,301 YDS, 61.4 CMP%, 15 TD, 19 INT
• Orton: 87.5 QB RAT, 3,653 YDS, 58.8 CMP%, 20 TD, 9 INT
• According to Pro Football Focus, an advanced statistics website, Orton was the league’s 16th best passer while Henne was 17th.
• Over the last two seasons, Orton’s TD-INT ratio is 41 to 21 (1.95 to 1) while Henne’s is 27 to 33 (0.8 to 1).
• While Orton had the lower completion percentage  overall (58.8 to Henne’s 61.4), he attempted 23 more passes thrown 21 yards or more, and this was in two less games.
• Of those big play passes, Orton completed 26 of 63 (41 %), while Henne completed just 9 of 40 (23 %). Here’s a defining stat: On passes thrown 21 yards or more, Orton posted a 99 QB Rating while Henne posted a 43 QB Rating.
• Henne finished with 16 batted passes while Orton finished with 9 (Remember, Orton also played in two less games). This definitely is indicative of a quarterback’s ability to look off his intended receiver. Henne was tragic at times in this area.
• It doesn’t get better for Henne in comparing their 4th quarter efficiency, Henne posted a 55.7 QB Rating while Orton posted a superior 87.3 QB Rating.

Orton is a superior quarterback by a landslide. Maybe Henne can develop into a quality passer one day, but when you have a chance to acquire a pretty good quarterback in his prime at what should be a modest price, you pull that trigger every time. You transform a maybe into a yes, and that yes gives Miami their best quarterback since Dan Marino.

Orton dominates Henne in two key areas. The first is big-play passes (balls thrown > 21 yards) and the second is in the 4th quarter. That’s enough to justify the Dolphins trading a third or maybe even a second round draft pick for the Bronco’s quarterback.

Now whether Miami can agree to terms on a contract with Orton to ensure a trade goes down is another discussion entirely. He is currently slotted to make in excess of $8 million next season.

There is one certainty, however. Orton at the helm of the Miami offense absolutely puts them in a better position to win.